Just to be clear from the start — Energy chiefs have already dismissed any reasons for pessimism and the acting Secretary of OPEC, General Mohammed Barkindo even released a statement that OPEC would step in at any time there is a shortage in the market.

Here’s a scary thought that popped up at World Economic Forum in Davos — there exists a possibility that price of crude oil can touch $262/barrel.

Bill Browder of the $4 billion Moscow-based Hermitage fund, which rose 81.5% last year and 1780% since its inception a decade ago, and his team performed a regression analysis to identify six possibilities which could raise the price of oil up-to $262/barrel.

Here are the possibilities they outlined and price to which it could increase the cost of oil.

1. Fall of the House of Saud — $262 a barrel.

2. Iran declares an oil embargo — $131 a barrel.

3. Venezuelan declares an oil embargo — $111 a barrel.

4. Civil war in Nigeria — $98 a barrel.

5. Major insurgent attacks on infrastructure in Iraq — $88 a barrel.

6. Unrest and violence in Algeria — $79 a barrel.

Even George Soros, who I have a lot of respect for and a reason to believe, after all he has made his billions by mainly reading the world situations and betting on currencies, also is very worried about the supply-demand balance, which he says is very tight.

“Iran is on a collision course and I have a difficulty seeing how such a collision can be avoided,” he says. I and The Economist, both agree with him.

Iran is indeed a very serious issue and, with no immediate diplomatic solution in sight, a military action by either US or Israel or both looks like a real possibility. And, this might fuel more attacks in Iraq and elsewhere.

The way Russia’s state owned Gazprom blocked supplies to Ukraine and the role Mr. Putin played in it isn’t a very encouraging sign either. Neither does Hugo Chavez being in power in Venezuela and the way he played with foreign oil companies give any comfort.

Damn, even the thoughts of the possibilities are scary. Is it good time to invest in energy sector? Not for me atleast. I don’t like this much uncertainty and the fact that most Indian companies have direct stakes in oilfields where these disruptions may occur.